这七个摇摆州的90多张选举人票预计将在卡马拉·哈里斯和唐纳德·特朗普之间的白宫竞争中发挥关键作用。

2022 年 4 月 2 日，嘉宾们在密歇根州华盛顿附近参加前总统唐纳德·特朗普的集会。7个摇摆州的选民可能会决定谁最终会在2025年1月入主白宫：特朗普还是副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）。

在今年 11 月的许多州，获得获胜者选举人票份额的总统候选人不太可能令人惊讶。

但在七个摇摆州——从沙漠西南部延伸到上中西部，再回到南部——结果仍然非常重要，争夺的 93 张选票可能会决定谁最终会在 1 月入主白宫。

即使在比赛历史性地重置之后，情况也是如此。前总统唐纳德·特朗普 - 可以说自 2016 年以来一直是共和党的旗手，即使在 2020 年失败之后 - 在 7 月再次正式接受共和党提名，就在一次暗杀未遂幸存几天后。但当月晚些时候，当乔·拜登（Joe Biden）总统结束竞选连任并支持副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）时，民主党方面发生了动摇，哈里斯最终在8月成为提名人。截至 10 月 2 日，《纽约时报》的全国民调平均值显示，哈里斯领先特朗普约 4 个百分点，尽管摇摆州的差距通常较小。

Guests attend a rally by former President Donald Trump near Washington, Michigan on April 2, 2022. Voters across seven swing states will likely decide who ultimately ends up in the White House in January 2025: Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris.

In many states this November, the presidential candidate who snags the winner's share of electoral votes is unlikely to be a surprise.

But across seven swing states – stretching from the desert Southwest to the Upper Midwest and back down into the South – the outcome remains very much in play, and the 93 votes up for grabs are likely to decide who ultimately ends up in the White House come January.

That’s the case even after a historic reset of the race. Former President Donald Trump – who has arguably been the GOP’s standard-bearer since 2016 even after a loss in 2020 – formally accepted the Republican nomination again in July, just days after surviving an assassination attempt. But the Democratic side was shaken up later that month, when President Joe Biden ended his bid for a second term and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who eventually became the nominee in August. A national polling average by The New York Times as of Oct. 2 had Harris leading Trump by about 4 percentage points, though the margins generally have been smaller in swing states.

根据按部就班的定义，摇摆州是指“被认为在总统选举结果中发挥关键作用”并且民主党和共和党候选人“支持率相似”的州。在每个总统选举周期中，摇摆州的群体通常相似，尽管人口结构和投票率的变化等因素可能会使传统的红色或蓝色州变成紫色。例如，在拜登在 2020 年出人意料地获胜和民主党参议员拉斐尔·沃诺克 （Raphael Warnock） 在 2022 年赢得选举之后，佐治亚州进入了摇摆州类别。

哈里斯和特朗普都把摇摆州作为他们竞选活动的重点，在11月5日选举季即将到来之际，以访问和集会为目标。A swing state, according to a by-the-book definition, is one that’s “considered to play a key role in the outcome of presidential elections” and where candidates of both the Democratic and Republican parties “have similar levels of support.” The group of swing states is often similar during each presidential election cycle, though factors like changing demographics and turnout can make a traditionally red or blue state turn purple. Georgia, for example, swung into the swing state category in the wake of Biden’s surprise victory there in 2020 and Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock’s election win in 2022.

Both Harris and Trump have made swing states a priority of their campaigns, targeting them with visits and rallies as the election season steams toward Nov. 5.

以下是 US News 2024 年大选值得关注的七个摇摆州。单击以了解有关每个州及其重要性的更多信息。Here are U.S. News’ seven swing states to watch for the 2024 election. Click through to learn more about each state and its significance.