“本周的通胀数据是否为美联储降息开了绿灯？投资者现在的机会又在哪里？高盛全球银行和市场部美国利率产品交易负责人Anshul Sehgal ，与高盛研究部的Chris Hussey展开讨论。”

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Chris Hussey: License to cut. Does this week’s inflation reading give the Fed the green light to continue cutting rates? This is The Markets. I’m Chris Hussey with Goldman Sachs Research, and this week I’m joined by Anshul Sehgal, head of US Interest Rate Products in our Global Banking and Markets business. Anshul, great to have you with us again.

Anshul Sehgal: Thank you for having me.

Chris Hussey: All right. Let’s go to the CPI print which we got this week. What did you make of the CPI print? Does the CPI matter anymore here?

Anshul Sehgal: I think it did. I think it was a good print for the Fed. One of the key things with inflation has been that rents have been stubbornly high, and leading indicators of rents like Zillow have been pointing to a decline in rents. So this is welcome news. Rents is also OER, which is the owners equivalent rent, for those that own their place and rents themselves, are inertial numbers. Once they start coming down, the expectation is that they will continue to stay low.

So in aggregate, it does give them the license to cut. I think it makes sense for them to cut. Labor market has more slack in it today than it did six months ago, without a shred of doubt. And I think this is like everything’s moving in the right direction for the Fed, at least for now.

Chris Hussey: All right. Let’s just flesh that out a little bit because the Fed is going to meet next week. They tend to focus maybe more on PCE than CPI, but they’re not going to get PCE. They got the CPI. You’ve said it gives them the license to cut. So a cut next week and then keep cutting after that? Is there a pause at all in the future? You talked about a pause when you were back with us in September. Is there anything like that coming?

Anshul Sehgal: My expectation is – and that’s not that different from the market’s expectation – that they will pause in January. Over the last few years, as you rightly point out, there has been data seasonality to both inflation and growth numbers. This time around, there’s a change in administration. The S&P’s done really well over the last year, which generally plays into hard data with a 6-month lag. The combination of all of these things can actually give growth data a bump early next year.

So my guess would be that they would have cut 100 basis points after the “deese” cut. At that point in time, they can afford to actually skip a meeting and see how data turns out. There’s so much in the air in terms of the new administration’s policies, their ramifications on the domestic economy. The combination of all of these things will give the Fed a very good picture on whether they need to continue cutting or whether they need to pause here for an extended period.

Chris Hussey：本周的通胀数据是否为美联储继续降息开了绿灯？这里是《市场专栏》。我是高盛研究部的Chris Hussey，这周我邀请到了高盛全球银行与市场部美国利率产品负责人Anshul Sehgal。Anshul，很高兴再次邀请到你。

Anshul Sehgal：谢谢邀请我。

Chris Hussey：好，让我们来聊聊本周公布的CPI数据。你怎么看这份CPI报告？在当前情况下，CPI数据还有意义吗？

Anshul Sehgal：我觉得有意义，我认为这对美联储来说是一个好消息。通胀中的一个关键因素是租金一直居高不下，但像Zillow这样的租金领先指标已经显示出租金在下降的趋势，所以这是一个积极信号。租金还包括OER（业主等效租金），即自有住房的租金部分，而这些指标具有惯性。一旦开始下降，通常会持续保持低位。

总体而言，这确实为美联储提供了降息的许可。我认为降息是合乎逻辑的选择。劳动力市场目前的松弛程度远高于六个月前，这是毋庸置疑的。我认为，现在一切都在朝着对美联储有利的方向发展，至少目前是这样。

Chris Hussey：好，我们展开说说。美联储下周就要召开会议了。他们可能更关注PCE数据而不是CPI，但这次他们只拿到了CPI数据。你说CPI给了他们降息的许可。那是不是意味着下周会降息，然后之后还会继续降？还是说未来会有暂停？你在九月份的时候曾提到可能会暂停，现在的看法有变化吗？

Anshul Sehgal：我的预测——其实和市场的预期差不多——是他们会在明年一月份暂停。过去几年，正如你提到的，通胀和经济增长数据一直有季节性波动。而这次新政府上任，标普500指数过去一年表现很好，这通常会对经济硬数据产生6个月的滞后效应。这些因素结合起来，可能会在明年年初为经济增长数据带来提振。

所以，我的猜测是，在“十二月降息”后，美联储可能会累计降息100个基点。到那时，他们或许可以跳过一次会议，看看数据的表现。新政府政策的影响以及对国内经济的连锁反应仍有很多不确定性。这些因素结合起来，将帮助美联储明确是继续降息还是暂停降息，甚至可能会暂停较长一段时间。

Chris Hussey: Right. Data seasonality, a little wonky. But that new administration one, I want to jump into that a little bit here because that obviously is top of mind across so many markets, particularly the rates market, as you point out. Walk us through what exactly is going on with policies from the new administration that might get the Fed’s attention here?

Anshul Sehgal: Yes, every part of their policy is going to impact the Fed’s decision making. They’re going to be addressing immigration, tariffs, obviously the strength of the dollar has been brought up, and the cost of government financing its debt. So the combination of those things will have an impact on what the Fed does. A lot’s uncertain, but the closest parallel we have is the early ’80s when Reagan came in. He deregulated.

By and large, the way it worked back then, as we see it, is that the US had very high fiscal expansion. So fiscal policy was very loose, and monetary policy was very tight. Like, rates were north of 10%. The combination of loose fiscal and tight monetary, along with trade frictions, essentially led to a stronger dollar. Essentially, real rates in the US were very high, and because real rates in the US were very high, investment income in the US was higher than the rest of the world.

All of these things are true today already. And the dollar at least historically over the last, say, four decades has been such that dollar strength feeds on itself. So once the dollar starts strengthening because real rates are high, the Fed’s on hold, I’d say, 4.5% or 4.25% when inflation is closer to 2%. Whereas, the rest of the world has real rates between minus 50 and plus 50 basis points. Like, that dollar strength will continue to feed itself.

And as that happens, the US imports disinflation because foreign goods become cheaper. So that sort of feeds on itself, and that eventually gives the Fed the ability to actually cut rates. In the ‘80s, you eventually had the Plaza, the dollar got too strong, and there were ramifications to that further down the road. But essentially sitting here today, like, it’s a great economy to inherit for the new administration.

You’ve got inflation coming down, labor market in balance, you’ve had four years of expansion economics, stellar economic expansion that was mainly driven by fiscal. And now with the Fed cuts, the ones that we’ve already got in the bag, you can have a credit-driven expansion currently. And there is room for the economy to accommodate that, and there’s room for the Fed to let it run because inflation’s coming their way.

So the combination of those things, we’re looking at it, like, for the US, it’s going to look like US exceptionalism all over again.

Chris Hussey：是的，数据的季节性因素有点复杂。不过，关于新政府的政策，我想深入聊聊这个话题。新政府的政策在许多市场，尤其是利率市场上备受关注。你能不能详细说说，新政府的哪些政策可能会引起美联储的注意？

Anshul Sehgal：当然，新政府的每一项政策都可能影响美联储的决策。他们将关注移民问题、关税问题，显然还有美元的强势，以及政府债务融资的成本。这些因素结合在一起，会对美联储的行动产生影响。目前有很多不确定性，但我们可以参考的最接近的例子是上世纪80年代初里根上台时的情况。他当时实施了去监管政策。

整体来看，当时的情况是，美国财政扩张非常激进，所以财政政策非常宽松，而货币政策则非常紧缩。比如，利率在10%以上。宽松的财政政策和紧缩的货币政策，再加上贸易摩擦，这些因素共同推动了美元走强。实际上，美国的实际利率非常高，正因为如此，美国的投资收益也高于世界其他地区。

这些情况和今天非常相似。从过去四十年的历史来看，美元的强势往往会形成自我强化机制。一旦实际利率上升，美元开始走强，像现在美联储维持利率在4.5%或4.25%左右，而通胀接近2%，而其他国家的实际利率大多在-50到+50个基点之间。美元的强势会不断自我增强。

随着这种情况的发展，美国会通过更便宜的外国商品“进口通缩”。这种机制会不断循环，最终赋予美联储降息的空间。在80年代，美元变得过于强势，最终通过《广场协议》进行了调整，这也对之后的经济产生了一些连锁反应。但回到今天，对于新政府来说，他们接手的是一个非常健康的经济环境。通胀在下降，劳动力市场趋于平衡，过去四年经济扩张显著，主要是由财政政策推动的。而随着美联储的降息措施，现在可以迎来一轮由信贷驱动的经济扩张。当前的经济状况允许这种扩张，美联储也有空间放任这种趋势，因为通胀正朝着他们的目标发展。

综合来看，美国的情况将再次呈现出“美国例外主义”的特质。

Chris Hussey: The analog to the ‘80s is a fascinating one, obviously. A couple of differences there. The Fed Funds Rate I think was, like, 15%.

Anshul Sehgal: That’s right. But inflation was also very high. It started out at around 12%, so 300 basis points real rates. But as inflation came down, the Fed was a little slow to react by choice because fiscal policy was lax. And as a consequence, real rates kept going up. And as real rates kept going up, more investment was attracted by the US, which again led to an industrial revival in the US in the ’80s, the tire sell, like Japanese automakers, built plants in the US back then.

So the combination of all of these things – loose fiscal, tight monetary, and trade frictions – essentially plays to the dollar’s strength, which imports disinflation for the US and creates jobs domestically. Now again, in the long run, the ramifications of all of this are unclear, but in the near term, the combination of these things ought to help the new administration achieve their policy objectives.

Chris Hussey: All right. Let’s cut to the chase. What’s the trade?

Anshul Sehgal: The trade is a longer dollar. The trade last time I was here I said was long the S&P. It continues to be long the S&P. In terms of rates, the rates market is in balance. There isn’t any risk premium in the rates market. The distribution of rates really depends on the policies that are enacted. So I don’t see an opportunity in the rates space that is asymmetric. But I do see in the combination of long the dollar and long the S&P ought to continue to work well.

Chris Hussey: Okay. What are we watching for next week? What are we watching for from the Fed specifically, and what else are you watching?

Anshul Sehgal: I think data is very important. We get retail sales. We get a read on the health of the economy. The Fed will be looking out for it, so we’re obviously very focused on that. In addition, obviously we have the Fed meeting. They will cut the markets pricing in 24 basis points at this point in time. In addition to that, they will be giving us the summary of economic projections, or the dot plot, which will give their estimate of how many times they’ll be cutting next year.

At last meeting, they showed four cuts next year. This time around, our model outcome is they will show two cuts. If they show just one cut, that would be a hawkish signal for markets. If they show three, that would be a dovish signal for markets. But that is what’s in the crystal ball for this meeting.

Chris Hussey: Anshul, thanks so much for joining us.

Anshul Sehgal: Thank you.

Chris Hussey：80年代的类比确实很有意思。当然，当时有一些不同之处，比如联邦基金利率当时大约是15%。

Anshul Sehgal：没错，但当时通胀也非常高，初始水平大约是12%，所以实际利率是300个基点。随着通胀下降，美联储选择性地反应较慢，因为财政政策非常宽松。结果是实际利率不断上升，而实际利率的上升吸引了更多的投资流向美国，这又在80年代推动了美国工业的复苏。例如，当时日本汽车制造商在美国建厂生产。

所以，宽松的财政政策、紧缩的货币政策和贸易摩擦这些因素结合起来，推动了美元的强势，使美国从海外进口通缩，同时在国内创造了就业机会。当然，从长期来看，这些因素的影响尚不明确，但在短期内，这种组合应有助于新政府实现其政策目标。

Chris Hussey：好的，直接切入主题吧，投资建议是什么？

Anshul Sehgal：投资建议是做多美元。上次我在这里时的建议是做多标普500指数，现在依然是做多标普500。至于利率市场，目前利率市场是均衡的，利率市场中没有风险溢价。利率的分布实际上取决于政策的执行情况。所以我认为利率市场中没有不对称的投资机会。但我认为，做多美元和标普500的组合仍然是一个不错的策略。

Chris Hussey：好的，下周我们需要关注哪些内容？特别是美联储的动向，还有其他需要注意的吗？

Anshul Sehgal：我认为数据非常重要。我们将看到零售销售数据，可以了解经济健康状况。这也是美联储会关注的，所以我们显然会密切跟进。此外，下周还有美联储会议。目前市场预计美联储将降息24个基点。

此外，美联储还会发布经济预测摘要，也就是所谓的“点阵图”，其中会包括对明年降息次数的预估。在上次会议中，美联储预测明年降息四次。而根据我们的模型，这次他们可能预测两次降息。如果预测只有一次降息，这对市场来说会是鹰派信号；如果预测三次，则会是鸽派信号。这就是我们对本次会议的预期。

Chris Hussey：Anshul，非常感谢你的参与。

Anshul Sehgal：谢谢邀请。