J.P. Morgan在最新报告中指出，未来的投资格局正在经历变革，并总结出未来值得关注的五大趋势。这些趋势揭示了新的增长机遇，标志着下一阶段的发展方向。把握这些关键趋势，才能抢占市场先机，在未来的竞争中占据一席之地！
Investment innovation sometimes comes in waves; 2025 will be a year of innovation, we believe, as the industry explores new frontiers. While these opportunities may not become a core part of your portfolio, you may find small but meaningful additions to your asset holdings.
投资领域的创新总是以浪潮的形式出现，我们认为2025年将是一个充满创新的年份。行业将迈向新的前沿，带来一系列新的机会。虽然这些新兴领域的投资可能暂时无法成为你资产组合的核心，但它们很可能会为你的投资带来小而重要的补充，助你拓展资产的潜在价值。
Evergreen alternatives
One new frontier, open-ended evergreen alternative funds, is rising in popularity. In fact, 50% of our alternative commitments in 2024 were in evergreen fund structures, up from 33% in the prior year. While many alternative asset funds have a fixed end date or maturity, open-end evergreen funds (with no fixed end date) have started to take off.
Evergreen private credit funds amassed assets in the early 2020s, in part because regulations constrained banks’ ability to extend loans. In 2025, we expect evergreen private equity to experience a similar growth trajectory. Today, evergreen private equity is concentrated: Around 75% of current assets under management are invested in the top 20 strategies. But in 2025, we will be partnering with several managers to develop strategies we think can deliver differentiated private equity exposure in semi-liquid vehicles. Indeed, there are 50 funds currently in the SEC registration process that are expected to launch in the next several months.
Evergreen alternatives offer a few key benefits: access to private investment strategies at lower minimum investment amounts; the ability to buy into a seasoned investment portfolio; and most importantly, the potential to access liquidity on a periodic (e.g., monthly or quarterly) cadence.
Evergreen funds also offer a simpler approach compared with closed-end funds. Getting fully invested at the right strategic weight requires only a one-time decision, and your capital can be reinvested to compound over time.
At the same time, we note a few caveats. Evergreen strategies tend to have higher fees and lower returns than closed-end funds that “draw down” their capital from investors. Importantly, redemption schedules of evergreen funds may be impacted by the occasional illiquidity of their underlying investments. That could be a challenge: Investors tend to want liquidity most during periods of economic and market stress.
We think open-ended evergreen and closed-end drawdown strategies can be complementary in a diversified investment portfolio. Investors who prioritize simplicity may emphasize evergreen strategies, while those who focus on absolute return might gravitate more toward traditional drawdown funds.
一、常青替代基金
常青基金的意思是“一种长期稳定的投资基金”
开放式常青替代基金正成为投资界的新宠，吸引了越来越多的关注。2024年，我们替代资产投资中有50%分配给了常青基金，相较2023年的33%有了显著提升。这种没有固定到期日的开放式基金，与传统的固定期限基金不同，正迅速获得市场青睐。
在2020年代早期，常青私募信贷基金受益于监管对银行贷款能力的限制而快速崛起。到2025年，常青私募股权基金预计也将迎来类似的发展路径。目前，约75%的常青私募股权基金资产集中在前20个投资策略中。但未来可能会更加多样化：数据显示，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）正在审查多达50只新基金，预计这些基金将在未来几个月内推出。
常青替代基金的独特优势
1. 投资门槛更低：为投资者提供以较少资金参与高质量私人投资策略的机会。
2. 投资组合更成熟：允许投资者直接进入已建立且运行稳定的投资组合。
3. 流动性更高：通常支持每月或每季度赎回，为投资者提供灵活的资金周转能力。
相比传统封闭式基金，常青基金操作更为简便。只需一次性决策即可达到目标配置权重，资金也可以持续再投资，从而实现长期复利增长。
风险
1. 费用较高：常青基金的管理费用通常高于传统封闭式基金，而回报率可能略低。
2. 流动性风险：由于底层资产的流动性受限，在市场波动较大时可能面临赎回限制。
策略
我们认为，常青基金与传统封闭式基金可以在多元化资产配置中形成互补。如果你追求操作的简便性和流动性，常青基金可能更适合；而如果你更看重长期绝对回报，可以优先考虑传统封闭式基金。
Sports & streaming
Traditionally, owning a sports team had more in common with owning a Rembrandt or a collection ofic cars than it did with owning public and private equities. But as sports leagues relax their ownership rules, potential sports investors can find new frontiers to explore.
The case for investing in sports is simple. First, sporting events are one of the few media experiences that reliably attract significant viewership. No wonder the total value of sports M&A and investment has increased by 8x over the past five years, while all public M&A and investment has declined by 40%.33
Second, the barriers to entry remain high for any new sports franchise, a benefit for any existing franchise owner. The number of franchises in the United States is strictly governed by their respective league rules, and the global hierarchy of leagues seems established.
But sports investing comes with challenges. The leagues’ most important historical partners, traditional broadcast (terrestrial) television networks, seem to be in inexorable states of decline. We would not be surprised to see the traditional media players consolidate, while the tech-enabled streaming services pay increasing premiums to access sports rights.
Ultimately, the bull case for sports investing seems likely to prevail. The National Football League (NFL) is also loosening its investment rules to allow more institutional capital, and major changes in collegiate athletics will likely necessitate capital solutions. We expect deal activity and equity and credit investment in sports and sports-related assets to outpace other industries.
二、体育与流媒体投资的崛起
过去，拥有一支体育球队更像是收藏一幅珍贵的画作或经典老爷车，而非传统意义上的投资选择。但随着体育联盟逐渐放宽所有权规则，体育投资正成为一个备受关注的新兴领域，为投资者带来全新的探索空间。
为什么投资体育？
体育赛事是为数不多能够持续吸引大量观众的媒体内容之一，这使其具备长期价值。过去五年，体育相关并购和投资总额增长了8倍，而整个公开市场的并购与投资却下滑了40%。其次，体育行业的进入门槛非常高，这对现有特许经营者来说是一项重大优势。美国的体育特许经营数量受到严格管控，全球体育联赛的层级体系也已经形成稳定格局。
风险
体育联盟的传统合作伙伴——广播电视网络，正在经历衰退期。另外流媒体平台的崛起正在改变行业格局。这些平台愿意支付更高的价格争夺体育赛事版权，推动市场竞争加剧。未来，传统媒体可能会进一步整合，而流媒体的介入将重塑体育赛事传播方式。
乐观前景：牛市逻辑依旧成立
尽管面临挑战，体育投资的潜力依然巨大。以美国国家橄榄球联盟（NFL）为例，他们正在放宽投资规则，吸引更多机构资本进入这一领域。同时，美国大学体育领域正在经历深刻变革，这将带来新的资本需求。可以预见，体育及其相关资产的交易活动将在未来几年持续升温，股权和信贷投资的表现很可能超越许多传统行业。
体育投资的战略价值
体育投资正从“兴趣爱好”向“战略资产类别”转变。未来的增长不仅依赖于行业规则的逐步放开，还得益于流媒体技术带来的推动。如果你正在寻找一个具备长期增长潜力的投资方向，体育投资无疑值得重点关注。
The 21st century space race
The global economy is already reliant on space. Satellites and other positioning, navigation and timing technologies are integral to location and communication services that enable industries from television to food delivery. Innovation from companies such as SpaceX has driven down the cost to launch a satellite by 10x over the past 20 years, and we expect that satellite enhancements will support more effective communications and observation technology.
This could be crucial for global connectivity, and could enable breakthroughs in data-intensive processes such as automation. Other use cases include imaging to track movements, which could help manage supply chains, predict and respond to natural disasters, and track construction projects.
Space will also continue to be a focus for sovereign security. The U.S. Department of Defense’s budget requests for space-based systems have increased from roughly USD 9 billion in 2019 to more than USD 25 billion in 2025. India landed a spacecraft on the South Pole of the moon. Japan and the United States are partnering on more accurate positioning technology. Peru, Saudi Arabia and Thailand have all prioritized space in their economic development plans.
Space tourism could grow to be a USD 5 billion per year industry in the next 10 years. Consulting firm McKinsey & Co. predicts that the space economy will grow at more than twice the pace of global GDP for the next decade, becoming a USD 2 trillion industry by 2035.
三、21世纪的“太空经济”竞赛
太空科技已经深深融入我们的日常生活。从卫星导航到通信服务，甚至是外卖配送，许多行业都离不开太空技术的支持。像SpaceX这样的公司，通过技术创新，让发射卫星的成本在过去20年降低了10倍。未来，卫星技术的升级，不仅能提升全球通信能力，还能在自动化等领域带来革命性突破。
这些技术还可以用于更实际的应用场景，比如利用卫星影像追踪物流动态，优化供应链，预测并应对自然灾害，甚至实时监控建筑工程。可以说，太空科技正在成为各行业效率提升的幕后功臣。
在国家层面，太空安全和主权布局也越来越受重视。美国国防部在太空系统上的预算从2019年的90亿美元飙升至2025年的250亿美元以上；印度成功将探测器送上月球南极；美国和日本正在联手开发更精准的定位技术。而像秘鲁、沙特阿拉伯和泰国这样的国家，也将太空技术纳入了经济发展规划。
还有，太空旅游也被看作一个潜力巨大的新兴市场，预计在未来10年成为一个年收入达到50亿美元的行业。麦肯锡预测，未来10年，太空经济的增速将是全球GDP增速的两倍，预计到2035年市场规模将达到2万亿美元。
无论是国家安全，还是经济增长，太空经济正在成为一个无法忽视的新赛道。未来，抓住这一机遇的国家和企业，或许就能站上下一个时代的制高点。
Liability management
Over the last two years, many borrowers have been carrying interest costs that were based on 5%+ short-term interest rates. As the market begins to anticipate future policy rate cuts, borrowers can lock in lower rates regardless of whether the rate cuts materialize. At one point in September, it was possible to fix base SOFR interest costs at 2.90%–3.25% for 2–5 years, given that the markets reflected an aggressive Federal Reserve cutting cycle. Clients can further adjust their borrowing costs using tools such as vanilla and structured interest rate swaps, caps and collars to lock in or manage toward even lower rates than the market is currently offering.
Mortgage activity also reflects dynamic management of market conditions—in particular, interest rate expectations. In September, J.P. Morgan Private Bank mortgage purchase applications were at their highest levels since June 2023, and refinance applications were at their highest since the summer of 2022. Some 70% of our mortgage applications were for adjustable-rate loans, the highest share in at least five years. This suggests that borrowers are doing their best to seek out the lowest possible rates, and they expect rates to fall in the future.
We may see other opportunities like this in the year ahead. Whether or not you engage in liability management, as borrowing costs fall, we expect to see an uptick in credit demand from home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), portfolio lines of credit, and mortgage purchases and refinances. Falling rates also matter for estate planning: Intra-family loan rates are less onerous, as are hurdle rates for grantor retained annuity trusts (vehicles in which asset appreciation above the hurdle rate is passed to the beneficiary free of estate taxes).
四、债务管理：抓住降息预期带来的机遇
过去两年，许多借款人一直面临超过5%的高额利息成本。随着市场逐渐反映未来可能的降息信号，现在正是锁定低利率的良机，即使降息最终未兑现，借款人也可以提前受益。比如9月份的时候，市场对美联储可能采取激进降息措施的预期推动基础SOFR利率可锁定在2.90%至3.25%之间，期限为2至5年。此外，通过使用普通或结构化利率掉期、利率上限或利率区间协议等工具，借款人还能进一步降低利率，甚至实现比当前市场更优的成本。
抵押贷款市场的灵活应对
抵押贷款市场的表现也反映了借款人对利率环境变化的敏锐反应。9月份，摩根大通私人银行的抵押贷款购房申请量达到2023年6月以来的最高水平，再融资申请量更是攀升至2022年夏季以来的峰值。其中，可调整利率贷款占比高达70%，创下五年来的新高。这一趋势表明，借款人正积极寻找利率洼地，同时对未来利率下降充满信心。
更多机会
未来一年，这类锁定利率的机会可能会进一步增多。无论你是否主动进行债务管理，我们预计，随着借款成本下降，房屋净值信贷额度（HELOC）、投资组合信贷额度，以及抵押贷款购买和再融资的需求将持续走高。同时，降息对遗产规划也有显著益处：家庭内部贷款的利率将更低，而保留年金信托（GRAT）的门槛利率也会下降，这意味着资产增值部分可以以免遗产税的形式转移给受益人。
把握时机，未雨绸缪
随着美联储政策信号的转变，现在正是借助工具提前锁定低利率的好时机。这一策略不仅能够帮助你有效降低借贷成本，还能为未来的财务规划提供更大的灵活性和保障。在当前经济环境下，这种前瞻性规划将助您更好地应对未来的不确定性，实现财务目标。
Reimagined Cities
The physical landscape of cities is shifting. It’s a post-pandemic phenomenon with global reach.
Even before COVID, cities were changing. In the United States, aging millennials were migrating to more affordable suburban areas. The pandemic and the proliferation of work-from-home arrangements supercharged the dynamic. Now, new development in many U.S. cities (including Boston, Indianapolis, and the Dallas/Fort Worth metro area) features low-rise, garden-style multifamily properties; office buildings in premier suburbs and fringe urban areas; and redeveloped mixed-use retail.
Globally, rent growth in urban fringe and suburban fringe markets such as Gangnam (Seoul), Fulton Market (Chicago), and Bahnhofsviertel (Frankfurt) has outpaced central business district (CBD) rent growth by 2.5x–9x over the past five years. We expect this trend will continue.
Meanwhile, city governments and investors will increasingly partner to convert lower-quality, older B and C office buildings to more productive uses (e.g., housing or even data centers). Over 80% of the office space in cities such as Chicago, Frankfurt, and Singapore was built before 2015. That said, new construction of LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) certified A office space continues to thrive. Some examples include the Salesforce Tower in Sydney and CapitaSpring in Singapore. J.P. Morgan’s new headquarters, which is set to open in New York City in the summer of 2025, will be one of the new office towers changing the skylines of cities around the world.
OUTSIDE CITIES’ CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICTS, RENT GROWTH IS PICKING UP
五、未来城市
城市的面貌正在悄然改变，这是一种全球范围的后疫情时代现象。
其实城市的转型早在疫情暴发之前就已悄然启动。在美国，许多中年千禧一代因追求更高的性价比而迁往郊区居住。而疫情的到来，以及远程办公的普及，则进一步加速了这一进程。如今，像波士顿、印第安纳波利斯以及达拉斯-沃斯堡都市圈这样的城市，已经开始涌现出新型开发项目。这些项目不再以高密度的市中心为核心，而是转向低层花园式多户住宅、优质郊区或城市边缘的办公楼，以及经过改造的多功能商业综合体。
城市边缘的租金涨势超越市中心
从全球来看，城市边缘和郊区的吸引力正在上升。比如首尔的江南、芝加哥的富尔顿市场和法兰克福的火车站区，这些区域过去五年的租金增速是市中心的2.5到9倍。随着人口和商业活动向边缘扩展，这一趋势预计还会延续。
老旧办公楼的再利用与高端新项目
许多城市正在尝试将老旧办公楼转型为更高效的用途，比如住宅或者数据中心。在芝加哥、法兰克福和新加坡，超过80%的办公楼建于2015年之前，这些建筑质量偏低，利用效率不高。相比之下，新建的高质量办公楼却表现抢眼。例如，悉尼的Salesforce Tower、新加坡的CapitaSpring大厦，以及计划于2025年夏季完工的摩根大通纽约总部，都代表了高端建筑的未来方向。这些项目不仅提升了建筑质量，还为城市增添了新的标志性景观。
城市发展的新方向
从全球视角来看，城市边缘地带正成为开发热土，其租金增长远超传统市中心，吸引了大量投资和人口迁移。城市政府和投资者通过老旧建筑改造与新建项目相结合，为城市带来了更多灵活性与多样化选择。未来，随着这些趋势持续推进，城市将朝着更加宜居、高效的方向发展，真正实现人居与经济的双赢。
