近年来，全球PC产业中两大制造商——惠普（HP）和戴尔（Dell）相继宣布了重大供应链调整计划，涉及中国产能的大规模迁移。此举不仅反映了企业对地缘政治风险的考量，也引发了业界对未来全球PC制造格局转变的广泛讨论。
In recent years, two of the largest manufacturers in the global PC industry, HP and Dell, have announced major supply chain restructuring plans involving large-scale relocations of production capacity in China. The move not only reflects the company's consideration of geopolitical risk, but also triggered a broad discussion in the industry about the future transformation of the global PC manufacturing landscape.
惠普的“去中国化”
HP's 'de-Sinification'
据2024年8月的报道，惠普计划在接下来的两到三年内，将超过50%的PC生产从中国转移出去，主要目的地是泰国。同时，惠普正在新加坡招聘约两百名电气和机械工程师与供应链专家，以将新加坡打造成一个替代设计中心，该中心将负责新产品开发工作并与供应链保持联系。
As reported in August 2024, HP plans to shift more than 50 percent of its PC production out of China in the next two to three years, with the main destination being Thailand. At the same time, HP is hiring about 200 electrical and mechanical engineers and supply chain experts in Singapore to establish the city as an alternative design hub that will handle new product development and liaise with the supply chain.
更有内部消息指出，惠普设定的长远目标是将70%的笔记本电脑产能移出中国。为此，至少五家惠普供应商正在泰国积极建设新的制造工厂或仓储中心，其中两家自2024年初以来，已响应惠普的需求开始提升产能。
More internal sources pointed out that HP has set a long-term goal of moving 70% of its laptop production capacity out of China. To this end, at least five HP suppliers are actively building new manufacturing plants or storage centers in Thailand, and two of them have begun ramping up capacity in response to HP's demand since the beginning of 2024.
这一决策标志着惠普作为中国制造业长期支持者的角色正在发生变化，该公司曾在中国建立起庞大的生产网络，重庆更一度成为全球领先的PC出口基地。
The decision marks a change in HP's role as a longtime supporter of manufacturing in China, where it built a vast production network and Chongqing was once the world's leading PC export base.
早在2023年7月就有消息称，惠普正与供应商合作，将数百万台消费和商用笔记本电脑的生产转移到泰国和墨西哥。彼时惠普回应称：“中国是我们全球供应链中非常重要的组成部分，我们依旧坚定致力于在重庆的(生产)业务”。惠普在重庆拥有一个生产基地，并在那里生产笔记本电脑。
Back in July 2023, news broke that HP was working with suppliers to move production of millions of consumer and business laptops to Thailand and Mexico. HP said at the time: "China is a very important part of our global supply chain and we remain strongly committed to our [manufacturing] operations in Chongqing." HP has a manufacturing base in Chongqing, where it makes laptops.
戴尔的“去中国化”
Dell's 'de-Sinicization'
无独有偶，此前戴尔也宣布了类似的计划。
Dell announced similar plans earlier this year.
2023年1月，据环球时报援引外媒报道称，戴尔目标是在2025年前将50%的产能迁出中国大陆，并计划在2024年前停止使用所有中国制造的芯片。戴尔还要求电子模块和印刷电路板（PCB）等组件供应商及产品组装商，减少使用中国产芯片和其他部件，以实现产品在全球供应链中的“去中国化”。
Dell has also asked component suppliers such as electronic modules and printed circuit boards (PCBS) and product assemblers to reduce the use of Chinese-made chips and other components in order to achieve the "de-Sinicization" of products in the global supply chain.
针对此消息，戴尔回避了关键问题，只是表示，“我们不断探索对客户和业务有意义的全球供应链多样化”。戴尔同时强调，“中国是一个重要的市场，我们有团队成员和客户为其服务”。
In response to the news, Dell dodged key questions, saying only that "we continually explore diversifying our global supply chain in ways that make sense for our customers and our business." Dell also stressed that "China is an important market, and we have team members and customers to serve it."
报道称，为了应对戴尔的目标，整个笔记本电脑供应链已经动了起来，全球最大笔记本电脑电源供应商群光电能科技（简称“群电”），当初为了配合客户需求而兴建的泰国厂，在2024年6月启用。据了解，包括电源供应器关键零组件变压器生产线，群电也会视情况考虑是否将转移部分产能至泰国。
Reported that in response to Dell's goals, the entire laptop supply chain has been moved, the world's largest laptop power supplier Group Optoelectronics Technology (referred to as "Group power"), originally in order to meet customer demand to build the Thai plant, in June 2024. It is understood that including the power supply key component transformer production line, Qunpower will also consider whether to transfer some production capacity to Thailand.
销售数据的变化
Changes in sales data
根据第三方调研机构数据，惠普在2023年出货约5200万台PC，仅次于联想，排名全球第二。戴尔的出货量同比大幅下滑20.6%至3997.9万台，市场份额从17.5%降至16.2%，排名第三。尤其在中国市场，戴尔的销量和市场份额遭遇严重缩水，出货量同比暴跌44%至314.8万台，市场份额降至8%，排名第五。
According to third-party research agency data, HP will ship about 52 million PCS in 2023, second only to Lenovo, ranking second in the world. Dell's shipments fell 20.6% year-on-year to 39.979 million units, and its market share fell from 17.5% to 16.2%, ranking third. Especially in the Chinese market, Dell's sales and market share suffered a severe contraction, shipments plummeted 44% to 3.148 million units, market share fell to 8%, ranking fifth.
2024年第二季度，惠普笔记本电脑出货量达到1070万台，同比增长1%，市场份额为22%，位居全球第二。戴尔在2024年第二季度出货了 1010 万台PC，同比下降了2.4%，市场份额为15.5%，同比也减少了0.9个百分点。
In the second quarter of 2024, HP's notebook shipments reached 10.7 million units, an increase of 1% year-on-year, and its market share was 22%, ranking second in the world. Dell shipped 10.1 million PCS in the second quarter of 2024, down 2.4% year-over-year, and its market share was 15.5%, also down 0.9 percentage points year-over-year.
随着两家公司未来产能的迁移，在华销售数据可能会受到进一步影响。
Sales figures in China are likely to be further affected as both companies move production capacity in the future.
惠普和戴尔在全球PC市场的排名一直较为靠前，但随着供应链的转移，其在中国市场的份额可能会有所调整。与此同时，中国本土品牌如联想继续保持市场领先地位，2023年出货量约5200万台，位居全球第一。
HP and Dell have always ranked higher in the global PC market, but their share of the Chinese market may be adjusted as the supply chain shifts. At the same time, local Chinese brands such as Lenovo continue to maintain their market leadership, shipping about 52 million units in 2023, ranking first in the world.
供应链转移的影响
The impact of supply chain shift
对此消息，惠普不予置评。而惠普首席供应链官ErnestNicolas此前在官方博客中写道：“我们将继续投资于我们长期运营的现有工厂，同时有时会将某些生产转移到其他地点，以创造灵活性并降低客户风险。”
HP declined to comment. HP chief supply chain Officer ErnestNicolas previously wrote in an official blog post: "We will continue to invest in our long-standing existing factories, while at times moving certain production to other locations to create flexibility and reduce customer risk."
分析人士指出，惠普和戴尔的供应链调整计划表明，降低风险已成为它们未来战略的关键。随着科技行业对供应链弹性的重视加深，这种趋势可能预示着全球电子产品制造基地的重新分布，印度、东南亚和拉丁美洲有望成为新兴的制造中心。
Analysts point out that HP and Dell's supply chain restructuring plans show that reducing risk has become key to their future strategies. As the tech industry's focus on supply chain resilience deepens, this trend could herald a reallocation of the global electronics manufacturing base, with India, Southeast Asia and Latin America expected to emerge as emerging manufacturing hubs.
“从我们的供应链检查中，我们发现惠普和戴尔对中国以外的多元化计划更加认真，”Omdia专门研究个人电脑行业的技术分析师Jeff Lin表示。“对他们来说，降低风险的想法在他们的未来供应链战略中变得非常重要。”
"From our supply chain checks, we see that HP and Dell are more serious about their diversification plans outside of China," said Jeff Lin, a technology analyst at Omdia who specializes in the PC industry. "For them, the idea of reducing risk becomes very important in their future supply chain strategy."
供应链分析师Chiu Shih-fang表示，今年科技行业再次被提醒供应链弹性的重要性。
Supply chain analyst Chiu Shih-fang said the tech industry was reminded again this year of the importance of supply chain resilience.
供应链的转移不仅影响惠普和戴尔的生产成本和效率，也可能对中国制造业造成冲击。中国作为全球最大的手机和电脑出口国，每年笔记本电脑出口量约为2.6亿台，占全球总量的80%左右。戴尔和惠普在中国生产的电脑超过1亿台，若大量产能外迁，将对中国的工厂和就业市场产生重大影响。
The transfer of the supply chain not only affects the production cost and efficiency of HP and Dell, but also may have an impact on China's manufacturing industry. China, the world's largest exporter of mobile phones and computers, exports about 260 million laptops a year, accounting for about 80 percent of the global total. Dell and H-P make more than 100 million computers in China, and a significant shift would have a major impact on the country's factories and job market.
尽管短期内这些举措可能带来成本上升和效率下降的挑战，但从长远来看，供应链的多元化将有助于企业抵御地缘政治波动带来的不确定性，同时也可能促使中国制造业进一步转型升级，寻找新的增长点。
Although these measures may bring challenges of rising costs and decreasing efficiency in the short term, in the long run, the diversification of the supply chain will help enterprises withstand the uncertainties brought by geopolitical fluctuations, and may also prompt China's manufacturing industry to further transform and upgrade and find new growth points.
