这是报道过的第 14 次总统选举。在很大程度上，这也是最令人沮丧的。
是的，我很担心结果，尽管我认为副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）更有可能以微弱优势获胜。四天外出，我宁愿有她的手。
2024 年竞选季以严重分裂的美国和两位历史上不受欢迎的候选人：前总统唐纳德·特朗普和乔·拜登总统拉开帷幕。尽管有一位候选人被更受欢迎的候选人哈里斯取代，但美国选民之间的分歧只会加剧——而且在周二之后可能只会变得更糟。
这种错误部分在于民主党人，尤其是年迈的拜登在一年或更长时间前拒绝退出，这本来可以产生一场高水平且可能富有成效的民主党初选竞争。
但这实际上是关于一个愤恨、寻求报复且经常精神错乱的特朗普所喷出的毒液——从批评卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）的种族和情报，到说移民“毒害了我们国家的血液”，并威胁说如果他输了，“就会为国家带来一场血腥屠杀”。这是一种不会消失的毒药，即使在最后一票清点之后也是如此。
这不仅仅是他的政策，尽管其中大多数政策都是毁灭性的。他的关税和税收政策将奖励富人，惩罚工人阶级并重新点燃通货膨胀。在迎合俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京 （Vladimir Putin） 的同时出卖乌克兰，让人想起英国首相内维尔·张伯伦 （Neville Chamberlain） 在二战前犯下的错误。大多数在特朗普政府中工作过的优秀人士现在都说他不适合担任公职，所以他周围都是小气、卑鄙和三流的马屁精。
The 2024 campaign season opened with a bitterly divided America and two historically unpopular candidates: former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden. Though one candidate was replaced by a more popular one – Harris – the division among American voters has only sharpened – and it will likely only get worse after Tuesday.
Some of this fault lies with the Democrats, especially with the aging Biden's refusal to bow out a year or more ago, which would have generated a high-level and likely productive Democratic primary contest.
But it's really about the venom that an embittered, revenge-seeking and often unhinged Trump has spewed – from criticizing Kamala Harris' race and intelligence to saying migrants "poison the blood of our country" and threatening "a bloodbath for the country" if he loses. That's a poison that won't go away, even after the last vote is counted.
It's about much more than his policies, as devastating as most of those would be. His tariff and tax policies would reward the rich, punish the working and reignite inflation. Selling out Ukraine while catering to Russian President Vladimir Putin brings to mind shades of UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s blunders in the lead-up to World War II. Most of the better people who worked in Trump’s administration now say he's unfit for office, so he'd be surrounded by petty,
mean-spirited and third-rate sycophants.
更糟糕的是，他让我们知道了他对法治的蔑视。他发誓，如有必要，将用武力追捕他的政治对手，他称之为“内部敌人”。他说——请相信他——这包括前众议院议长南希·佩洛西（Nancy Pelosi）和正在竞选参议员的加利福尼亚州众议员亚当·希夫（Adam Schiff）等民主党人。周四在亚利桑那州的一次集会上，特朗普谈到前怀俄明州众议员利兹·切尼（Liz Cheney）时说，切尼是著名的共和党强硬派，曾谴责哈里斯并支持哈里斯，“让我们让她站在那里，拿着九根枪管向她射击，好吗？让我们看看她对此有何感受，你知道的，当枪对准她的脸时。
他威胁要利用19世纪的《起义法》（Insurrection Act）来对付那些他认为是国内“敌人”的人，警告不支持他的私营企业领袖，呼吁暂停宪法，并加强对哈里斯的恶意种族主义攻击。
许多人用“法西斯主义”这个词来形容第 45 任总统，从前参谋长联席会议主席马克·米利 （Mark Milley） 和约翰·凯利 （John Kelly） 等美国高级将领，到蒂莫西·斯奈德 （Timothy Snyder） 和迈克尔·贝施洛斯 （Michael Beschloss） 等著名历史学家。
反应很能说明问题。凯利担任了两年特朗普的白宫幕僚长，他讲述了这位前总统蔑视军事牺牲的故事。特朗普唯一的辩护？佛罗里达州参议员马尔科·卢比奥（Marco Rubio）曾是特朗普的对手，他为了赢得竞选伙伴的席位而讨好他，他指责凯利“撒谎”。
特朗普的副总统人选、俄亥俄州参议员 JD 万斯声称，这些前特朗普政府高级官员背叛他，因为这位前总统不同意他们关于“美国应该成为世界警察”的观点。万斯认为，如果特朗普“与俄罗斯发动核战争”，凯利和切尼会对特朗普感到满意。
考虑到特朗普的年龄（78岁）和精神敏锐度——从他越来越曲折、语无伦次的演讲中可以看出这一点——如果共和党获胜，万斯可能会接任。这并不令人欣慰。JD Vance 的一位不愿透露姓名的前亲密伙伴将他描述为“变形者”。在这次竞选活动中，他已经证明他可以按照特朗普想要的任何方式操纵自己。
然后是“嗯，他可能没那么坏”的人群，他们说，根据他四年的任期，称他为法西斯主义者是不公平的。
对于那些可能已经忘记或压抑了 2017 年至 2021 年记忆的人，让我们简要回顾一下特朗普的任期。他试图让司法部追捕他视为敌人的政客;他建议他的国防部长在 2020 年夏天乔治·弗洛伊德 （George Floyd） 被谋杀后枪杀那些抗议种族不公正的人;这位国防部长后来提醒下属，特朗普可能会试图利用军队夺取投票箱，以防止他在 2020 年大选中失利;而且，在本应是他最后的、可耻的行为中，他成为美国历史上第一个煽动暴力起义试图推翻诚实选举的候选人。
Much worse, he has let us know his contempt for the rule of law. He vows to go after his political opponents, whom he calls "the enemy from within," by force if necessary. This, he says – and please believe him – includes Democrats like former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Adam Schiff of California, who is running for Senate. At a rally in Arizona on Thursday, Trump said of former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, a prominent GOP hard-liner who has denounced him and endorsed Harris, “Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK? And let’s see how she feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on her face.”
He has threatened to use the 19th-century Insurrection Act against those who he sees as domestic "enemies," warned private business leaders who don't support him, called for suspending the Constitution and intensified vicious racist attacks against Harris.
Many have thrown around the word “fascist” to describe the 45th president from top U.S. generals, such as former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley and John Kelly, both of whom served in his administration, to noted historians like Timothy Snyder and Michael Beschloss.
The response is telling. Kelly served two years as Trump's White House chief of staff, and he has related tales of the ex-president's contempt for military sacrifices. Trump's only defense? Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, a former Trump opponent who cozied up to him in an effort to earn a spot as his running mate, accuses Kelly of "lying."
Trump’s VP pick, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, claims these former high-ranking Trump administration officials turned on him because the ex-president didn't agree with them that "America should be the policeman of the world." Kelly and Cheney would have been fine with Trump if he were to "start a nuclear war with Russia," Vance contends.
Given Trump's age (78) and mental acuity – in question, as seen by his increasingly meandering, incoherent speeches – Vance could take over if the Republican ticket wins. That's not comforting. A former close associate of JD Vance who didn't want to be quoted by name described him as a "shape shifter." In this campaign, he has shown he can maneuver himself any way that Trump desires.
Then there's the "well-he-may-not-be-that-bad" crowd, who say it's unfair to call him a fascist based on his four years in office.
For those who may have forgotten – or repressed – memories from 2017 to 2021, let’s briefly review Trump’s time in office. He tried to get the Justice Department to go after politicians he considered enemies; he suggested to his defense secretary shooting those who protested against racial injustice in the summer of 2020 following George Floyd’s murder; the same defense secretary later alerted subordinates that Trump might try to use the military to seize ballot boxes to prevent his 2020 election loss; and, in what should have been his final, damning act, he became the first candidate in American history to instigate a violent insurrection to
try to overturn an honest election.
看看特朗普本轮的竞选活动，很明显他什么也没学到，而且正在加倍努力他的威权主义冲动，认为这一次的护栏很少，如果有的话。他的威胁正在成功。Looking at Trump’s campaign this round, it’s evident he has learned nothing and is doubling down on his authoritarian impulses, figuring there will be few, if any, guardrails this time. His threats are succeeding.
在他对《华盛顿邮报》对他担任总统的报道感到愤怒后，他于 2019 年命令五角大楼从亚马逊的杰夫·贝佐斯 （Jeff Bezos） 手中夺走利润丰厚的云计算合同，贝佐斯也是《华盛顿邮报》的所有者。
本周，贝佐斯扼杀了一份支持哈里斯竞选总统的社论草案，这促使一些知名作家和编辑退出，超过 250,000 名读者取消订阅。如果特朗普获胜，贝佐斯不支持哈里斯的决定不会保护他。《华盛顿邮报》才华横溢的调查记者第一次揭露特朗普丑闻——而且不会缺少这样的丑闻，因为腐败就像前总统的呼吸一样——特朗普将追捕亚马逊。
其他商界领袖不愿批评特朗普，担心他会利用政府的权力来寻求报复。他们有理由深感担忧。特朗普以前就这样做过，他的竞选团队明确表示，他将在第二个任期内加紧这样做。
如果他在周二输了，特朗普势力将动员起来，实现他们四年前无法实现的目标：窃取选举。这包括恐吓投票站工作人员，与他们帮助提升到县投票委员会的 2020 年选举否定者合作，提起法律诉讼，试图将这个问题推向友好的法院或党派的州立法机构，以及与美国众议院议长迈克·约翰逊合作，如果任何决策进入众议院，则操纵结果。
是的，品格很重要。特朗普上周日在他卑鄙的纽约市集会上发表了闭幕词，重新展示了他的面貌。正如篮球巨星、前美国参议员比尔·布拉德利（Bill Bradley）所写的那样，特朗普将麦迪逊广场花园变成了“仇恨的大教堂，喷出了他分裂的毒液”。
在我记录的前 13 次选举中，我从未担心过民主的命运。即使在 2016 年，我也认为特朗普是一个吹牛者，而不是法西斯主义者。现在我们更清楚了。
如果哈里斯赢了，我们就躲过了一把匕首。但特朗普在这场竞选活动中散发出的不民主恶臭肯定会挥之不去。
